ERC Accessibility Forecasting
Forecastability of future accessibility deterioration across minimal operational observables. Predictive signal appears substantially stronger from present operational recoverability organization than from perturbation geometry alone, while randomized controls collapse toward chance levels
Forecastability of Accessibility Deterioration Under Recoverability Constraints
This work explores whether future accessibility deterioration may become operationally forecastable before explicit collapse emerges.
Using a minimal recoverability-constrained computational framework, the simulations investigate whether present operational recoverability state carries stronger predictive signal than perturbation geometry alone.
Under explored conditions, forecastability appears substantially stronger from present operational organization than from perturbation schedule alone, remaining stable across future horizons and collapsing toward chance levels under randomized controls.
More broadly, the results are consistent with an operational distinction between preserved mapping (available scaffold) and realized routing (dynamically traversable futures), suggesting that preserved structure may coexist with progressively reorganized accessibility.
DOI (Zenodo)
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20451294
View Code (GitHub)
https://github.com/jaimeojse-collab/erc-accessibility-forecasting
Related Frameworks
Previous ERC-related computational frameworks associated with this research direction:
